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领先的研究和咨询公司高德纳公司(纽约证券交易所代码:纽约证券交易所代码:)报告称，2023年第四季度业绩强劲，其关键财务指标均显着增长。该公司在合同价值、收入、EBITDA、调整后每股收益和自由现金流方面均实现了较高的个位数增长。
研究部门是高德纳最赚钱的部门，第四季度增长了5%。2023年，订阅收入占该公司全球收入的75%以上。Gartner的全年财务数据也令人印象深刻，收入同比增长5%，EBITDA为3.86亿美元，调整后每股收益为11.33美元，自由现金流达到11亿美元。展望未来，Gartner提供了积极的2024年指导，尽管面临经济和地缘政治挑战，但仍有望实现增长，并计划继续向股东返还过剩资本。
Gartner第四季度和2023年全年的财务表现超出预期，实现了个位数的高增长。
最大、最赚钱的研究部门在第四季度增长了5%。
潜艇2023年，脚本收入占总收入的很大一部分。
该公司对2024年的增长目标提出了乐观的指导意见。
Gartner的销售渠道GTS和GBS显示出强劲的增长ntract价值。
该公司在第四季度回购了1.58亿美元的股票，全年回购了超过6亿美元的股票。
Gartner预计，到2024年，研究收入至少将达到51.5亿美元。
有限公司收益预计至少为5.6亿美元到2024年，咨询收入至少为5.3亿美元。
有限公司2024年的合并收入预计至少为62.4亿美元。
该公司预计明年EBITDA至少为14.35亿美元，调整后每股收益至少为10.55美元。
到2024年，自由现金流预计至少为10.65亿美元。
从中期来看，Gartner的目标是实现两位数的收入增长，扩大EBITDA利润率，增加自由现金流。
大公司正在更新公司由于裁员，收缩速度较慢。
小型技术供应商面临人才保留问题，其中一些难以获得资金或被收购。
Gartner的有限公司咨询公司第四季度收益部门实现了强劲的收入增长。
GBS公司第四季度合同价值达到11亿美元，同比增长13%。
Gartner的销售渠道在钱包留存和新业务方面都有增长。
第四季度调整后每股收益为3.04美元，低于上年同期的3.70美元。
Gartner计划在2024年将GTS/GBS的员工数量增加到中高个位数。
该公司在2023年11月实施了超过4%的价格上涨，几乎没有任何阻力。
Gartner预计，今年第一季度科技供应商续约方面将出现轻微泡沫。
总之，Gartner的财报电话会议强调了该公司强劲的财务状况和2024年的战略前景。高德纳专注于增长和股东回报，在把握扩张机会的同时，也将自己定位于应对当前全球市场的复杂性。
高德纳公司(纽约证券交易所代码:IT)凭借稳健的财务业绩和旨在增长的战略举措继续成为头条新闻。为了进一步了解该公司的市场地位，让我们深入了解InvestingPro的一些关键指标和见解:
InvestingPro数据显示，Gartner的市值为357.7亿美元，市盈率为40.35，这表明截至2023年第三季度的过去12个月，市场估值较高。这一估值基于63.51的市净率。
从盈利能力的角度来看，Gartner的毛利率高达68.26%，这表明相对于其同期收入58.2556亿美元而言，成本管理效率很高。
InvestingPro Tips显示，Gartner的EBITDA估值倍数很高，接近52周高点，目前的价格是峰值的97.87%。这反映了投资者的信心和该股的强劲表现，尤其是考虑到过去六个月来该股股价上涨了35.12%。
对于那些希望深入研究Gartner财务健康和股票表现的人，InvestingPro提供了额外的提示，可以访问https://www.investing.com/pro/IT。对于那些对全面分析感兴趣的人来说，还有11个以上的InvestingPro技巧可供参考。为了提高您的投资研究经验，使用优惠券代码SFY24可获得2年InvestingPro+订阅额外10%的折扣，或使用优惠券代码SFY241可获得1年InvestingPro+订阅额外10%的折扣。
这些洞察提供了Gartner的财务状况和市场表现的快照，对于投资者在考虑该公司最近的收益报告和未来前景的背景下考虑该公司的股票至关重要。
大卫·科恩:大家早上好。欢迎参加Gartner的2023年第四季度财报电话会议。我是大卫·科恩，投资者关系高级副总裁。此时，所有参与者都处于仅听模式。在Gartner首席执行官Gene Hall发表评论后;和Gartner的首席财务官克雷格·萨芬(Craig Safian)，将有一个问答环节。请知悉，今天的会议正在录音。本次电话会议将包括对2023年第四季度财务业绩和Gartner对2024年的展望的讨论，这些展望已在今天的收益发布和收益补充中披露，两者均发布在我们的网站上。在电话会议上，除非另有说明，所有提及的EBITDA均为调整后的EBITDA，其调整在我们的收益发布和补充中描述，我们讨论的合同价值和相关增长率基于2023年的外汇汇率，不包括与第一季度资产剥离和2022年俄罗斯退出相关的贡献。除非另有说明，否则Gene评论中的所有增长率都是外汇中性的。除非另有说明，所有提及的股份数均为完全稀释加权平均股份数。我们使用的所有非公认会计准则数字的对账可以在gartner.com网站的投资者关系部分找到。正如在今天的收益发布中更详细地阐述的那样，在本次电话会议上所作的某些陈述可能构成前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述可能会从实际结果中产生重大影响，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，包括公司2022年10-K表格年度报告和10-Q表格季度报告以及向美国证券交易委员会提交的其他文件中包含的风险和不确定性。我鼓励所有人审查这些文件中列出的风险因素。现在我把电话交给Gartner的首席执行官Gene Hall。
Gene Hall: Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. Gartner drove another strong performance in the fourth quarter. We delivered high single-digit growth in contract value, revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EPS and free cash flow came in above expectations. Gartner delivers incredible client value in any macroeconomic environment. In 2023, the world experienced multiple disruptions. They impacted enterprises in dramatically different ways. For example, high interest rates affected capital-intensive industries and financial institutions such as regional banks, high inflation rates had an outsized effect on industries such as health care. Geopolitical polarization and conflict drove increases in military and defense spending while affecting supply chains, more shifts in how and where people work affected real estate, live events and entertainment and other industries. Cybersecurity attacks became even more frequent while getting stronger and more disruptive. And we saw a significant leap in the capabilities of artificial intelligence, or AI, which fueled even more complexity. We serve leaders in every enterprise across every industry and every geography. They know they need help. And they know Gartner is the best source for the help they need. Gartner delivers actionable objective insight that drive smarter decisions and stronger performance on an organization's mission-critical priorities. We guide the leaders who shape the world. Our insights often make the difference between success and failure, the leaders we work with and the enterprises they serve. As we move into 2024, our ability to execute operational best practices consistently is the strongest it's ever been. We have the lowest proportion of open positions ever. Our recruiting capability and capacity are world-class. We have a strong associate value proposition. And our teams have higher tenure than in 2023, which will allow us to drive strong performance well into the future. Research continues to be our largest and most profitable segment. Our market opportunity is vast across all sectors, sizes and geographies. Our business remains resilient in a complex external environment. Through relentless execution of proven practices, we're able to deliver unparalleled value to our clients. In the fourth quarter, we help clients with a wide range of topics, including cybersecurity, data analytics, artificial intelligence, remote work, cost optimization and more. Research revenue grew 5% in Q4. Subscription revenue represented more than 75% of our consolidated global revenue in 2023. We delivered subscription revenue growth of 8% on an organic basis in the fourth quarter. Total contract value growth was 8%. Across GTS and GBS, contract value from enterprise function leaders grew at double-digit rates. New business with enterprise function leaders also grew at double-digit rates. Gartner serves executives and their teams to distinct sales channels. Global Technology Sales, or GTS, serves leaders and their teams within IT. GTS also serves leaders at technology vendors, including CEOs, Chief Marketing Officers and senior product leaders. GTS contract value grew 6%, led by growth with ITs and enterprise function leaders. GTS sales to leaders and technology vendors continue to be affected by technology sector dynamics. Exiting the year, we began to see some improvement. New business with tech vendors grew at high single digits. We expect new business to lead retention and contract value growth. Global Business Sales, or GBS, source leaders and their teams beyond IT. This includes HR, supply chain, finance, marketing, legal, sales and more. GBS contract value grew 13%. GBS new business was up double digits. Gartner Conferences deliver extraordinarily valuable insights to an engaged and qualified audience. 2023 was the first full year of in-person conferences since 2019. We had a great year, and we drove a strong finish in the fourth quarter. In Q4, we held some of our largest destination conferences, including IT Symposium in Orlando and Barcelona and Ravage HR in Orlando. These conferences were spectacular. Across all our destination conferences, attendance was up year-over-year with many at or near capacity. Looking ahead to 2024, advanced bookings continue to be very strong and feedback continues to be excellent. Gartner Consulting is an extension of Gartner Research. Consulting helps clients execute their most strategic initiatives through a deeper extended project-based work. Consulting is an important complement to our IT research business. Consulting revenue grew 8% for the full year. We saw growth in labor-based consulting and record results in contract optimization for the full year. We are introducing 2024 guidance, which we view as achievable across a wide range of economic and geopolitical scenarios with opportunity for upside. In closing, Gartner achieved another strong quarter of growth. We deliver incredible client value, whether our clients are struggling, thriving or anywhere in between. We're exceptionally agile and continuously adapt to the changing world, and we know the right things to do to be successful in any environment. Looking ahead, we're well positioned to continue our sustained record of success or into the future. Our client value proposition and addressable market opportunity will allow us to drive long-term sustained double-digit revenue growth. We expect margins will expand modestly over time. And we generate significant free cash flow well in excess of net income. As we invest for future growth, we'll return significant levels of excess capital to our shareholders. This produces shares outstanding and increases returns over time. With that, I'll hand the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Safian.
Craig Safian: Thank you, Gene, and good morning. Fourth quarter revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EPS and free cash flow were better than expected as we continue to execute very well in a complex environment. Our financial performance for the full year 2023 included global contract value and consolidated revenue growth of 8%, EBITDA of $1.5 billion, diluted adjusted EPS of $11.33 and free cash flow of $1.1 billion. We are introducing 2024 guidance, which we view as achievable across a wide range of economic and geopolitical scenarios with opportunity for upside. Fourth quarter revenue was $1.6 billion, up 5% year-over-year as reported and 4% FX neutral. In addition, total contribution margin was 67%. EBITDA was $386 million, ahead of our guidance primarily as a result of disciplined cost management. Adjusted EPS was $3.04 and free cash flow was $196 million. We finished the quarter with 20,237 associates, up 5%, excluding the 2023 divestiture and about the same as Q3. We have a great team across Gartner, driven by a very compelling associate value proposition. Moving into 2024, we are in an excellent position from a talent and tenure perspective. Research revenue in the fourth quarter grew 6% year-over-year as reported and 5% FX-neutral. Subscription revenue grew 8% on an organic FX-neutral basis. Non-subscription revenue performance in the quarter reflects a shift to higher-quality traffic. While this action has a short-term effect on revenue, we expect it will drive higher prices and increase revenue over time. Fourth quarter research contribution margin was 74%, consistent with the prior year period as we have caught up on hiring and return to the new expected levels of travel. For the full year 2023, research revenues increased by 6%, both as reported and FX neutral. The gross contribution margin for the year was 74%. Contract Value, or CV, was $4.8 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, up 8% versus the prior year. CV growth is FX neutral and excludes the first quarter 2023 divestiture. We expect new business to be a leading indicator for retention and, in turn, contract value growth. We had the highest one month of new business dollars ever in December 2023. For the fourth quarter, CV from enterprise function leaders across GTS and GBS grew at double-digit rates. New business with enterprise function leaders increased double digits as well. CV from tech vendors was about flat versus the prior year and up sequentially. Tech vendor CV continued the quarterly improvement we saw in Q3. Tech vendor new business was up high single digits in Q4, marking the first year-over-year increase in 2023. Quarterly net contract value increase, or NCVI, was $180 million. As we've discussed in the past, there is notable seasonality in this metric. CV growth was broad-based across practices, industry sectors, company sizes and geographic regions. Across our combined practices, the majority of the industry sectors grew at double-digit or high single-digit rates led by the energy, manufacturing and public sectors. We had high single-digit growth across almost all of our enterprise size categories. The small category, which has the largest tech vendor mix grew modestly. We also drove double-digit or high single-digit growth in the majority of our top 10 countries. Global Technology Sales contract value was $3.7 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, up 6% versus the prior year. GTS CV increased $134 million from the third quarter. Wallet retention for GTS was 101% for the quarter, reflecting net growth even before the addition of new clients. In the fourth quarter, IT enterprise function leaders wallet retention was consistent with historical GTS levels. GTS new business increased 12% versus last year. New business with IT enterprise function leaders increased mid-teens compared to 2022. New business with tech vendors increased high single digits in the quarter. GTS quota-bearing head count was about flat year-over-year. With the dynamic territory planning we introduced a few years ago, the catch-up hiring we did last year and our teams moving up 10-year curve, we're well positioned for growth moving into 2024. Operationally, we are continuously allocating resources to the best near-term opportunities even as we ensure we are well positioned to capture the large addressable market opportunity over time. Our regular full set of GTS metrics can be found in the earnings supplement. Global Business Sales contract value was $1.1 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, up 13% year-over-year. The majority of our GBS practices grew at double-digit rates. Growth was led by supply chain, legal and HR. GBS CV increased $46 million from the third quarter. Wallet retention for GBS was 107% for the quarter, reflecting strong net growth with our existing clients. GBS new business was up 13% compared to last year. GBS quota-bearing head count was up 8% versus the fourth quarter of 2022. This excludes headcount associated with the Q1 divestiture. As with GTS, our regular full set of GBS metrics can be found in the earnings supplement. As we do each year at this time, we've provided 2 years of quarterly historical contract value data updated to 2024 FX rates in the appendix of the earnings supplement. Conferences revenue for the fourth quarter was $214 million, up 14% year-over-year. Contribution margin in the quarter was 50%, consistent with typical seasonality. We held 11 destination conferences in the quarter, all in person. For the full year 2023, we delivered an all-time high revenue of $505 million, which was an increase of 30% on a reported basis and 29% FX neutral. Gross contribution margin was 50%. Fourth quarter consulting revenues were $128 million compared with $138 million in 2022 when we saw a record performance in the Contract Optimization business. Consulting contribution margin was 27% in the fourth quarter, affected by revenue mix and growth hiring. Labor-based revenues were $99 million, up 3% versus Q4 of last year as reported and on an FX-neutral basis. Backlog at December 31 was $162 million, increasing 21% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis with continued booking strength. We delivered $29 million of Contract Optimization revenue in the quarter. This part of our business is highly variable. For the second half of 2023, revenues were $62 million, up from the second half of 2022 when we delivered our largest ever quarter in Q4. Full year Consulting revenue was up 7% on a reported basis and 8% FX-neutral. Gross contribution margin was 35% compared to 39% in 2022. Consolidated cost of services increased 11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter as reported and 10% on an FX-neutral basis. The biggest driver of the increase was higher headcount to support our future growth. SG&A increased 9% year-over-year in the fourth quarter as reported and 8% on an FX-neutral basis. SG&A increased in the quarter as a result of headcount growth. EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $386 million compared to $421 million last year. Fourth quarter EBITDA upside to our guidance primarily reflected disciplined expense management. EBITDA for the full year was almost $1.5 billion, a 1% increase over 2022 on a reported basis and up 2% FX-neutral. Depreciation in the quarter of $26 million was up modestly compared to 2022. Net interest expense, excluding deferred financing costs in the quarter was $19 million. This was down $9 million versus the fourth quarter of 2022 due to higher interest income on our cash balances. The modest floating rate debt we have is fully hedged through maturity. The Q4 adjusted tax rate, which we use for the calculation of adjusted net income was 24% for the quarter. The tax rate for the items used to adjust net income was 15% for the quarter. The full year tax rate for the calculation of adjusted net income was 22%. Adjusted EPS in Q4 was $3.04 compared with $3.70 last year. We had 79 million shares outstanding in the fourth quarter. This is a reduction of about 1 million shares or about 1% year-over-year. We exited the fourth quarter with about 79 million shares on an unweighted basis. For the full year, adjusted EPS was $11.33, up modestly from 2022. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $224 million, up 10% compared to last year. CapEx for the quarter was $28 million, down $4 million as a result of catch-up spend on technology investments in 2022, which normalize this year. Free cash flow for the quarter was $196 million, up 19% compared to last year. Free cash flow for the full year was almost $1.1 billion, a 6% increase versus 2022. Free cash flow on a rolling four quarter basis was 18% of revenue and 71% of EBITDA. Adjusting for the Q1 divestiture, the full year free cash flow conversion from GAAP net income would have been 138%. Our free cash flow conversion is generally higher when CV growth is accelerating. We have a new slide in the earnings supplement, which shows the conversion from both EBITDA and GAAP net income to free cash flow on a rolling four quarter basis. The past 2 years have had some unusual items affecting the conversion, including insurance proceeds related to pandemic conference cancellations and the 2023 divestiture. We expect about a 4 to 6 point difference between EBITDA margin and free cash flow margins in a typical year. The normal free cash flow conversion from GAAP net income is 140% to 160%. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had about $1.3 billion of cash. Our December 31 debt balance was about $2.5 billion. Our reported gross debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA was under two times. Our expected free cash flow generation, available revolver and excess cash remaining on the balance sheet provide ample liquidity to deliver on our capital allocation strategy of share repurchases and strategic tuck-in M&A. Our balance sheet is very strong with $2.3 billion of liquidity, low levels of leverage and effectively fixed interest rates. We repurchased $158 million of stock during the fourth quarter and more than $600 million for the full year. At the end of December, we had about $1 billion of authorization for repurchases remaining, and we expect the Board will continue to refresh the repurchase authorization going forward. As we continue to repurchase shares, our capital base will shrink. Over time, this is accretive to earnings per share and combined with growing profits also delivers increasing returns on invested capital. Before providing the 2024 guidance details, I want to discuss our base level assumptions and planning philosophy for 2024. For research, we continue to innovate and provide a very compelling value proposition for clients and prospects. Executives and their teams face uncertainty and challenges, and they recognize how Gartner can help regardless of the economic environment. The outlook for 2024 research revenue growth is a function of three primary factors: first, 2023 ending contract value; second, the timing of growth bottoming and the slope of the reacceleration, and third, the performance of nonsubscription revenue. Starting with the research subscription revenue, which was 76% of 2023 consolidated revenue. Our guidance reflects CV bottoming and reaccelerating during 2024. First quarter and first half NCVI are important inputs to calendar 2024 revenue growth. We have taken a prudent view of NCVI phasing because Q1 is a seasonally important quarter for tech vendor renewals. With the majority of our contracts being multiyear, some haven't come up for renewal during the tech sector's recalibration. And research subscription revenue will likely bottom about one quarter after contract value growth bottoms. If new business continues to perform well and retention is better than we've incorporated into the plan, there would be upside to our guidance. The nonsubscription revenue was about 6% of consolidated revenue in 2023. In this part of the business, we help small business buyers find the best software for their needs and help sellers find customers. This adds a lot of tangible value for both groups. The outlook built into the 2024 guidance reflects a shift to higher-quality traffic sources. As I mentioned, this affects revenue in the short term, but we expect it to drive higher prices and increased revenue over time. For conferences, which was about 9% of 2023 revenue, we are basing our guidance on the 51 in-person destination conferences we have planned for 2024. We expect similar seasonality to what we saw in 2023, with Q4 the largest quarter, followed by Q2. We have very good visibility into 2024 revenue with the majority of what we've guided already under contract. This is consistent with last year and ahead of historical levels. For consulting, which was also about 9% of 2023 revenue, we have more visibility into the first half based on the composition of our backlog and pipeline as usual. Contract optimization has had several very strong years. It's also seasonally slower in the first quarter and remains highly variable. We've incorporated a prudent outlook for this part of the segment. We remain focused on aligning expense growth with CV growth. This is the best way for us to balance short-term margins while investing for long-term sustained double-digit growth. Our base level assumptions for consolidated expenses reflect a more typical cadence than we've seen in a while. We are investing for future growth even as we have taken a prudent view of the timing of revenue flowing into the P&L. We recommend thinking about expenses sequentially with notable seasonality driven by the conferences calendar and merit increases. Our plan for mid to high single-digit sales headcount growth for 2024 reflects our commitment to invest for future growth while delivering on our margin targets. We have the recruiting capacity to go faster depending on how the year plays out, and we have other levers like increased tenure to support CV growth in 2024. At current rates, FX will be approximately neutral to growth for the full year. Our guidance for 2024 is as follows, we expect research revenue of at least $5.15 billion, which is FX-neutral growth of about 5%. The research revenue guidance reflects a prudent plan for NCVI performance and the recalibration of nonsubscription part of the business. The guidance reflects subscription revenue growth in the high single digits. We expect conferences revenue of at least $560 million, which is FX-neutral growth of about 10%. We expect consulting revenue of at least $530 million, which is growth of about 3% FX-neutral. The result is an outlook for consolidated revenue of at least $6.24 billion, which is FX-neutral growth of 5%. We expect full year EBITDA of at least $1.435 billion, which results in an EBITDA margin of at least 23%. We expect 2024 adjusted EPS of at least $10.55 per share. For 2024, we expect free cash flow of at least $1.065 billion. This reflects a conversion from GAAP net income of above 140%. Our guidance is based on 79 million shares, which only assumes repurchases to offset dilution. Finally, for the first quarter of 2024, we expect to deliver EBITDA of at least $335 million. We performed well this year despite continuing global macro uncertainty and a dynamic tech vendor market. Global CV grew high single digits in the quarter with enterprise function leaders CV growing double digits. Revenue, EBITDA and EPS performance exceeded our expectations, and we introduced achievable guidance with opportunity for upside. We repurchased more than $600 million in stock during 2023 and more than $3 billion in the past 3 years. We remain eager to return excess capital to our shareholders. We will continue to be price sensitive, opportunistic and disciplined. Looking out over the medium term, our financial model and expectations are unchanged. With 12% to 16% research CV growth, we will deliver double-digit revenue growth. With gross margin expansion, sales costs growing about in line with CV growth and G&A leverage, we will expand EBITDA margins modestly over time. We can grow free cash flow at least as fast as EBITDA because of our modest CapEx needs and the benefits of our clients paying us upfront. And we'll continue to deploy our capital on share repurchases, which lower the share count over time and on strategic value-enhancing tuck-in M&A. With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator, and we'll be happy to take your questions. Operator?
接线员:比为。我们的第一个问题来自Jeff Meuler与Baird的连线。您的电话现在接通了。
杰夫·穆勒:是的，谢谢。我只想先吃点东西。我知道这不是一个巨大的业务，但在研究上不订阅逆风和需要重新校准。我知道这一整年都很疲软，但我之前的解释是，更多的是像周期性逆风。现在看来，你的反应更切合实际，以推动更高质量的流量。所以我只是猜测，我不知道是否有商业审查或者，我猜，为什么现在在商业的周期性方面与哪里有运营改进的机会相比?
Craig Safian:嘿。早上好，杰夫。谢谢你的问题。我先开始，然后吉恩也会插话。我认为从事实开始，非订阅业务约占2023年收入的6%。显然，我们全年都承受着科技市场的压力。我们的业绩主要体现在全年的定价压力上。我们看到了。我们调整了第二季度的收益。好消息是，自我们做出调整以来，价格一直大致稳定。然而，在第四季度，我们一直关注的一件事是确保我们为等式的两边提供最高的价值。有了这些产品，我们基本上——小型企业买家来到我们的网站，了解更多关于购买什么软件的信息，我们实际上帮助他们进行评论、评级、研究和类似的事情。然后我们将它们与卖家进行比对。再一次，有形价值，正如我们提到的，在等式的两边。我们始终专注于为客户创造更多价值。因此，我们所做的一件事就是将我们的重点和优先事项转移到更高质量的流量形式上。再一次，对收入的短期影响。但从长期来看，我们认为这对双方的客户都有好处，随着时间的推移，这将推动更高的定价，从而推动更高的收入，这对每个人都有好处。但我想说的是，我们的指导方针是真正关注高质量的流量。我们没有考虑到价格的实际上涨。同样，从长远来看，我们预计这种情况会发生。我们并不想在其中建立模型，所以我们实际上看到了它在现实中表现出来。
杰夫·穆勒:好的。然后我清楚地听到了你关于更好的技术供应商，新业务销售趋势的声音。也许可以谈谈技术供应商的留存率，就像你如何看待在更困难的环境中尚未更新的尾巴一样?或者当你看到新业务之前的变化时，典型的滞后时间是多少，比如留存率趋势需要多长时间才能得到类似的改善?
吉恩·霍尔:嗨，杰夫，我是吉恩。我们面临的最大问题之一是小型技术供应商很多小型技术供应商所处的市场已经发生了变化，他们现在很难获得资金。对于那些供应商来说，如果他们在一两年前签了2年或3年或多年的合同，当续约的时候，他们没有任何资金。事实上，在很多情况下，他们已经破产了。所以，这是我们在科技领域最大的阻碍，就留住员工而言。如你所见，大公司仍在裁员数万人。所以他们还没有完成重组。正如我们所提到的，科技行业的新业务总体呈个位数增长。所以我们认为，这是一个领先的指标，一旦我们解决了这些问题，特别是那些自签署协议以来就已经倒闭的公司，我们就会跟进。顺便说一下，这仍然是一个非常强劲的业务。现在获得资金的公司只是不同的一面，大的人工智能。
杰夫·穆勒:明白了。谢谢你！
接线员:谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的托尼·卡普兰。您的电话现在接通了。
托尼·卡普兰:谢谢。实际上，也许和上一个问题类似。在准备好的发言稿中对新业务的评论，超出了技术供应商的范畴。所以总的来说，企业新业务听起来很好，甚至技术供应商在新业务中的改进听起来也不错。我只是想知道，是否有什么可能——在接下来的几个季度里，这种风险会开始通过合同价值流动?你能多快看到合同价值的变化?我知道您在事先准备好的发言稿中提到，您预计今年会出现转机。谢谢。
克雷格:早上好，托尼。谢谢你的问题。只是列出事实。所以正如你所说，GTS，作为HT供应商的一部分，新业务以高个位数的速度增长。GTS的终端用户或企业功能领导者部分的新业务同比增长了15%左右，GBS的新业务同比增长了13%。因此，我们在第四季度的所有销售市场都看到了相当强劲的新业务成果。正如我们提到的，我们将新业务视为当前市场状况的真正领先指标。从第二季度到第三季度，我们看到了新业务的适度改善。这种情况从第三季度持续到第四季度，第四季度技术供应商实际上在2023年首次出现增长。如你所知，NCVI和CV的增长是新业务和留存率结合的结果。正如我们在准备好的讲话中谈到的以及在回答杰夫的问题时，压力仍然很大吉恩也提到了这一点。市场上的小型技术供应商仍然面临很大的挽留压力。自科技行业真正开始调整以来，也就是2022年第三、第四季度，我们仍然有很多尚未触及的续期或即将触及的续期。所以仍然有一点滞留压力。不过，新业务，我们绝对视之为先行指标。同样，这也让我们有信心说，我们预计CV将在2024年触底，并在2024年开始重新加速。
托尼·卡普兰:这很有道理。接下来，我想问一下员工人数。我猜，你对24年员工人数增长的预期是什么?我只是想多了解一点，过去两个季度的员工人数增长似乎一直在放缓，低于正常水平。我知道在前一年和23年早些时候有过一次追赶。所以我想，员工人数减少是否有助于管理利润率?或者，我猜，这是一个迹象，我不认为你说机会减少了，但只是想了解我们现在看到的低于正常的员工人数增长水平?
吉恩·霍尔:托尼，我们认为这是一个非常巨大的市场机会。我们打算在未来的许多年里抓住这个市场机会。我们保护这一机遇的核心战略之一是增加员工数量，以抓住机遇。但员工人数的增长是快是慢取决于我们团队的实际销售能力。现在，我们相信我们有很多的销售能力实际上嵌入在我们今天的能力。随着时间的推移，随着我们业务的发展，这个数字也会增长。
Craig Safian:正如我们在事先准备好的讲话中提到的，我们实际上已经进入了我们的计划，综合GTS和GBS，与季度相关的员工人数增长中位数到高个位数。一如既往，我们准备走得更快。正如Gene和我提到的，如果我们愿意，我们有能力加快招聘速度。因此，我们已经在GTS和GBS的个位数增长中拨通了电话，如果我们看到反弹也更快，我们就可以走得更快。
托尼·卡普兰:太好了。谢谢你！
接线员:谢谢。下一个问题来自美国银行的希瑟·巴尔斯基。您的电话现在接通了。希瑟，你的电话接通了。请检查您的静音按钮。
Heather Balsky:嗨。我沉默了。很抱歉。谢谢你回答我的问题。我想回到技术供应商方面的续签问题，我想问你，是否有——我的意思是，很明显，如果公司破产，你无法控制。但在这方面你能做些什么呢?你能帮我们了解一下续订的浪潮有多重要吗?我知道投资者对此很好奇。
吉恩·霍尔:再一次，如果你看一下市场上的大公司，续保的过程是正常的——比平时慢一点，因为他们裁掉了成千上万的人。我们预计这种情况将会改变。需求量很大。同样，我们预计全球IT支出将增长7%，达到近5万亿美元。所以那里有大量的需求。我们预计，随着时间的推移，这将正常化。所以留存的真正问题是这些非常小的技术供应商，随着时间的推移，它们对我们来说是一个很大的市场，但现在有一个转变，从过去获得资金的方式到现在。正如我所提到的，获得资金的是真正关注人工智能。所以那些不太受欢迎的公司现在无法获得资金，如果他们在商业上不成功，他们要么被收购，要么倒闭，在这种情况下，我们的保留会影响我们的保留。
Craig Safian: Heather，我想补充的另一件事是，就大型科技客户而言，通常情况下，我们看到的增长可能比我们通常购买的或通过更新周期或适度削减支出看到的增长略低，但他们始终保持着相当重要的Gartner存在。然后我们要做的就是确保我们能够赢回业务，这实际上有助于推动增长，摆脱更严峻的宏观环境。这是我们在一些宏观环境中经常看到的情况，技术供应商或其他方面，我们会从保留的角度采取一些混合措施，但保持嵌入，仍然为我们的客户提供巨大的价值，然后赢回并长期发展业务。
希瑟·巴尔斯基:我想问一个你已经说过的问题的另一个版本，同样的问题，但你谈到了技术供应商方面的简历规范化。上个季度，你谈到了12到18个月的正常化。这仍然是你基于第四季度所看到的前景吗?你对此有何看法?
吉恩?霍尔:所以我们对这部分业务的长期看法没有改变。我们相信它能够按照我们的中期目标增长。我们仍然相信，随着时间的推移，我们将看到这项业务的重新加速。不管是9到15个月，12到18个月，还是24个月，我们都会在这个范围内看到这种重新加速。但这里的市场仍然非常强劲。在这个领域，我们的产品仍然为客户带来巨大的价值。从中期来看，没有理由不能恢复到12%到16%的增长，这与我们对强劲业务的中期目标是一致的。
希瑟·巴尔斯基:明白了。谢谢。
接线员:谢谢。下一个问题来自富国银行的Seth Weber。您的电话现在接通了。
赛斯·韦伯:大家好。早上好。我想也许首先，我要澄清一下。当你谈到你的研究收入指南时，我想回想一下，它暗示了非订阅收入的增长，大概是两位数的低增长。这是考虑你的模型所包含的内容的正确方式吗?
吉恩·霍尔:是的，这是正确的数学，赛斯。你说对了。
Seth Weber:好的。谢谢你！然后在强大的新业务获胜的情况下，你能稍微描述一下吗?我的意思是，这是一个功能，比较容易，生产力更好吗?或者你真的从你的客户那里看到或听到了更好的情绪?销售周期是否越来越短?新业务的成功似乎非常强大，我只是想在你的指导下把这些事情联系起来。谢谢。
吉恩·霍尔:是的。首先，我想说的是，我们有一个强有力的价值主张。因此，当客户看到他们从我们的产品中获得的价值时，他们就会想要购买。这就是驱动需求的根本原因。最重要的是，我们总是关注影响销售效率的事情。还有一些事情，比如我们给他们的工具，我们拥有的过程。正如克雷格在他的讲话中提到的，终身教职也会影响到你，我们在终身教职方面也有了适度的改善。但推动这一趋势的根本因素是对客户的内在需求，因为他们需要我们的服务，以便从中获得很多价值。
Seth Weber:对。但是顾客的情绪在上个季度有改变吗?情况好转了吗?还是销售周期发生了变化?或者你有什么想说的来加速新业务的成功吗?
吉恩·霍尔:我想说，整个2023年的销售环境都会略有改善。
Seth Weber:好的。好吧。谢谢大家。我会转达的。
接线员:谢谢。下一个问题来自安德鲁·尼古拉斯和威廉·布莱尔的对话。您的电话现在接通了。
安德鲁·尼古拉斯:嗨，早上好。谢谢你回答我的问题。我想谈谈作为新业务驱动力的人工智能。我知道这是吉恩你在前面概述的话题之一。我很好奇，有没有办法量化，甚至主观地谈论人工智能作为新业务的驱动力，交叉销售，与客户的新对话。我知道这是不断发展的技术领域的一部分，但我只是想知道这个话题是否有任何推动或显著的推动，特别是当它与新客户或新业务有关时?
Craig Safian:是的。安德鲁，我们为各个领域的客户提供服务，正如你所知，他们从这些领域中获得价值。在过去的一年里，人工智能得到了很多宣传。所以在媒体上，等等。因此，人们对理解人工智能是什么以及它将如何影响我们客户的业务有着异乎寻常的高兴趣。我想说，这就像我们帮助客户的其他事情一样。这并不是造成额外20%需求的原因。这是我们的客户感兴趣的领域之一，只是那些有成本问题的客户，可能有一些与人工智能相反的成本优化。所以这取决于个人客户的情况，但这肯定是一个需求强劲的领域。
安德鲁·尼古拉斯:太好了。接下来，我想谈谈你的指导中关于简历增长底部的部分。我认识到第一季度和上半年的NCVI是重要的投入，而你一直很保守。吉恩，我记得在新闻发布会上，你说过你有一个上升的机会，而且在广泛的经济情况下，指导是可以实现的。综上所述，我们是否可以假设，在您的指导下，简历增长将在下半年触底?那么早前发生的事情会带来什么好处呢?或者有没有其他方法可以让我们思考这些潜在的假设?谢谢你！
吉恩·霍尔:是的。早上好，安德鲁。我认为，考虑简历和收入的方式，显然，我们的收入指南是研究部分和订阅收入部分。收益总是滞后于合同价值的恢复。最重要的是，如你所知，上半年NCVI的变化将对2024年的收入增长产生更大的影响，而不是第三季度或第四季度的大幅增长，这是巨大的，会带来巨大的现金流，并将推动未来的收入，但对2024年的收入影响很小。因此，我们不是在指导今年的收入——我们的CV数字，也不是具体指出底部在哪里，但我们已经在展望中考虑了CV的底部，CV在2024年的过程中会重新加速。
安德鲁·尼古拉斯:明白了。谢谢你！
接线员:谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的马纳夫·帕特奈克。您的电话现在接通了。
匿名分析师:你好。我是布兰登，这里是马纳夫的电话。我只是想问一下，你们是如何看待回到两位数的简历增长的。显然，如果你的QBH是中高个位数。你的新生意仍然很兴旺。所以现在看来，这就像是一个钱包保留问题，更高的取消问题。这种感觉会随着时间的推移而消失吗?或者你真的期望更多新的商业生产力，如果你愿意的话，从QBH或者我猜，你们是怎么想的?
吉恩·霍尔:早上好，布兰登。我的意思是，目前影响合同价值和合同价值增长的最大因素是业务的技术供应商部分。正如我们提到的，我们业务的企业功能领导者部分在第四季度以两位数的速度增长，实际上在2023年一直保持两位数的增长。因此，如果你看看7.7%的整体合同价值增长，你就会发现，实际情况是，占总CV 75%以上的企业职能部门正以两位数的速度增长。而技术供应商部分的业务，正如我们在事先准备好的讲话中提到的，今年基本持平。因此，我们开始看到技术供应商业务的重新加速，这也是略低于总CV的25%。这显然会对整体CV增长产生影响。另一件我认为显然非常重要的事情是，我们在2022年的招聘过程中赶上了很多。这意味着在2023年，我们有很多人在高德纳销售生涯的早期。正如你所知，当人们提出终身任期曲线时，他们的生产力就会提高。因此，我们有信心从销售的角度来看，我们有足够的能力进入2024年，考虑到科技行业的反弹，可能更重要的是，我们的销售人员的任期曲线上升，这应该提供适量的燃料，如果你愿意的话，推动2024年的合同价值增长，我们的GTS/GBS员工人数在2024年将增长中位数到高个位数。这实际上是关于加速和维持增长，直到我们进入2025年和2026年。
身份不明的分析师:好的。在GBS中，你能给我们一些数据或增长率吗?显然，它仍然表现得很好。你还能给我们其他颜色吗?
吉恩·霍尔:是的。我的意思是，在更大的基础上，它仍然是12.9%或13%的同比增长。我们的中期目标是做大，保持增长。正如我在事先准备好的发言中提到的，供应链、法务和人力资源是这一领域增长最快的三个部分。但很明显，所有业务都必须增长良好，我们才能实现13%的CV同比增长。
身份不明的分析师:好的，谢谢。
接线员:谢谢。下一个问题来自瑞银集团的Josh Chan。您的电话现在接通了。
Josh Chan:大家好。早上好。谢谢你回答我的问题。我知道你没有指导CV轨迹或NCVI，但我猜听起来你更强调技术供应商更新动态。所以我猜，我们是否可以将其解释为对Q1的影响比正常情况下更大。你能不能解释一下你这样称呼这个特定动态背后的基本原理?
吉恩·霍尔:是的。早上好，乔希。谢谢你的问题。因此，我们总是关注与此相关的合同终止日期和合同价值的偏差。就像我们过去说过的，一般来说，我们在一年中的分布是均匀的。今年，我们实际上有一点泡沫，但不是很大，但第一季度我们的科技供应商客户的泡沫略高于平均水平。所以你可能已经听到我们在准备好的讲话中多次使用“谨慎”这个词。我们只是想确保我们的指引反映了我们最近的表现，以及我们对未来几个季度的了解。因此，我们对上半年的NCVI采取了谨慎的态度，将这一点考虑在内。话虽如此，我要再次重申，我们确实预计总体CV增长将在2024年触底，并开始重新加速——即使第一季度的重点是技术供应商的更新。
乔什·陈:好的。我喜欢那里的颜色。这真的很有帮助。如果我能转移到边距。您能谈谈利润率逐年增长的不同驱动因素吗?我的意思是，你有正的收入增长，你有重新加速的CV，成本结构似乎处于一个不错的位置。那么，保证金是否有更多的利弊呢?这怎么和指导意见一致呢?谢谢你！
Craig Safian:当然。谢谢你,杰克。最简单的思考方式是，我们在GTS和GBS的目标员工人数增长是中到高个位数。想想看，我们不仅在一个地方有所增长，而且在其他地方也有所增长，再加上正常的绩效和工资通胀，再加上不断增长的会议业务。如果你看一下指引中隐含的运营费用，它同比增长了8%或9%，这与我们在指引中计入的员工人数增长和会议费用增长相一致。正如我们所提到的，2024年的运营费用节奏要“正常”得多，而前几年我们落后了，但我们正在迎头赶上，等等。这是更正常的季度对季度的运营费用。推动我们2024年营收的最大因素是2023年的到期合同价值。很明显，正如我们在安德鲁的问题上所说，收入将滞后于合同价值的恢复。所以现实是——再次强调，在过去的几个季度里，我们不是在指导，而是在指出，这将是2024年的现实，我们将回到为未来投资的正常节奏上，扩大我们的销售队伍，扩大其他领域。我们正在处理到2023年的CV减速问题。显然，这对2024年的收入有影响。显然，非订阅收入的表现也影响了整体收入和咨询业务的增长率，尽管这仍在我们的中期指导范围内，但鉴于我们在合同优化方面表现强劲，我们正在考虑这方面的增长率。因此，所有这些因素都会影响到营收，而我认为2024年的指引中包含了“正常”的运营费用增长。
乔什·陈:太好了。谢谢你的颜色，克雷格。谢谢你们的宝贵时间。
接线员:谢谢。下一个问题来自Jefferies有限责任公司的Surinder Thind。您的电话现在接通了。
苏林德:谢谢。退一步说，如果我们看一下大局，以及我所说的经济的相对实力，你认为为什么科技方面的客户目前没有增加支出?我猜在你们的谈话中，是什么让他们做出承诺?他们在寻找什么呢?
Craig Safian: Surinder，在技术方面，我认为这是真正的挑战，所以这是市场重新校准的结合。当我说到重新校准的时候，就像Gene说的，我们在科技的小领域有一个非常健康的业务，有资金流动，但它不像一年前或两三年前那样流向同样的地方。所以我们只是在处理它。再说一遍，我们在赚钱的地方寻找机会，或者在有鱼的地方钓鱼。但正如你所看到的，科技行业的大规模裁员在开始一年甚至15个月后仍在发生，在裁员数万人的过程中，在这样的环境下出售，比他们完全重新调整的情况下更具挑战性。所以我认为我们仍然在为客户创造巨大的价值。他们仍然是我们非常重要的客户。我们将在那里帮助他们，因为他们反弹，并通过重新校准。这只是需要一点时间，但我们对我们提供的价值充满信心。正如我之前提到的，我们对这部分业务的长期或中期增长前景充满信心。但事实是，他们仍在进行重大调整，可以说，我们也在进行调整。
吉恩·霍尔:再补充一点……
Craig Safian:请继续。
吉恩·霍尔:当你向一家正在积极裁员的公司出售产品时，人们的注意力集中在他们将解雇谁，或者实际上他们是否会被解雇。所以这需要一段时间，这是一个更加艰难的销售环境。他们会熬过去的，一切都会恢复正常。这是较大的一端。然后在小的一端，克雷格描述得很好。
苏林德:明白了。然后我想，如果我们思考这个问题，或者推进这个思路，当你更广泛地思考你的业务和你所服务的所有客户时，我想，你现在的业务是否比以前的周期更具周期性或潜在波动性，也许原因是现在有更多的私募股权，风投支持的公司，它们只是生态系统的一个更大的部分。所以他们更愿意做出更快的战略调整或者开支决策改变等等。有没有什么结构性的东西是我们应该意识到的，或者至少是我们应该思考的?
吉恩·霍尔:所以我们的观点是，这与结构性无关。在疫情期间，科技支出出现了增长。事实上，很多科技公司，可能他们中的大多数都认为这种情况会永远持续下去，结果证明这只是一种推动。现在他们只是在调整以恢复正常。就这么简单。所以除非流行病是周期性的，否则我认为我们的状况很好。
Craig Safian:是的。我还认为，苏林德，只是为了强调这一点。当我们谈到整体业务或市场机会时，我会关注市场机会。所以大概有2000亿美元的市场机会。其中1900亿美元是技术供应商之外的机会。因此，我们仍然非常专注于为GTS和GBS的企业职能领导者提供900多亿美元的市场机会。再说一次，我们相信技术供应商市场是一个非常强大的市场。但现实是，2000亿美元市场机会中的1.9亿美元是企业功能领导者的机会。
苏林德:明白了。谢谢你！
接线员:谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自BMO资本市场的杰夫·西尔伯。您的电话现在接通了。
杰夫·西尔伯:谢谢。我知道很晚了。我只问一个，它是多部分的。我们能谈谈定价环境吗?你能不能告诉我们今年的涨价幅度是多少?你有遇到阻力吗?该领域的其他公司为延长任期提供了一些休息时间吗?你也在这么做吗?谢谢。
吉恩·霍尔:嘿。早上好，杰夫。谢谢你的快速提问。在定价方面，我们有4%多一点。我们在今年11月提价，这是我们通常的提价时间。比21年和22年低一点，主要是因为我们看到通胀下降了一点，最重要的是，工资通胀下降了一点。所以我们在4%左右，比4%多一点。我认为，总的来说，客户并没有反对它。记住，每个客户的平均花费是25万美元。所以3%和4%的增长差别很小。再说一次，我们非常注重确保我们的产品和服务每年都有增量价值。我们将继续以预付发票的方式进行销售，并真正关注这一点。我们将继续销售越来越多的多年期合同，并将重点放在这一点上。所以我想说，是的，环境已经变得有点艰难了，但我们一直在努力坚持我们的立场，坚持我们所知道的为企业带来巨大经济价值的东西，这就是坚持我们的定价，而不是折扣，销售多年合同，并确保我们提前完成发票。我认为我们的团队在坚持我们在那里的协调方面做得非常出色。
杰夫·西尔伯:好的。非常感谢。
接线员:谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自高盛的George Tong。您的电话现在接通了。
乔治·唐:嗨。谢谢。早上好。你提到第一季度技术供应商续约特别重要，因为那里有一点泡沫。你能帮我量化一下吗?与今年其他季度相比，集中度有多高?
Craig Safian:是的。我想，我的意思是，记住，我们的技术供应商简历只占总简历的不到25%。通常情况下，第一季度代表了整个特许经营总续订量的25%多一点。今年，对于科技供应商来说，它在整体简历中所占的比例在30%左右。所以这不是一个巨大的泡沫。只是第一季度的权重比正常情况稍高一些。
乔治·唐:明白了。这是有帮助的。这样全年的EBITDA利润率就会达到23%。你认为这一目标的潜在上行动力是什么?
Craig Safian:乔治，我认为在这一点上，收入的上升将推动23%利润率的最大增长潜力。正如我们所说的，我不记得是谁的问题，我想是Josh的问题，OpEx是，再次，原谅我用这个词，比过去几年更正常。我们又回到了我们的区域发展计划。从4月1日开始，我们将恢复正常的加薪。所以我觉得，我们对我们得到的OpEx计划感觉非常好。因此，我认为，各个业务线的收入上升可能会带来一点利润率上升。也就是说，如果我们从收益的角度来看做得更好，再一次，Gene和我都提到了这一点，我们就有了更快的招聘能力。因此，我们要确保我们不仅在2024年表现良好，而且在25年和26年继续表现强劲。因此，如果我们有机会加快GTS和GBS员工人数的增长，我们肯定会抓住这个机会。
乔治·唐:明白了。谢谢你！
接线员:谢谢。现在我不会再提问了。我想把话筒交给吉恩·霍尔做结束语。
吉恩·霍尔:这是今天电话会议的要点。Gartner在第四季度的表现再次强劲。无论我们的客户是在挣扎、繁荣还是处于两者之间，我们都能提供令人难以置信的价值。我们非常敏捷，不断适应不断变化的世界，我们知道在任何环境下做正确的事情才能取得成功。展望未来，我们已经做好准备，在未来继续保持我们持续的成功记录。我们的客户价值主张和潜在的市场机会将使我们能够推动长期持续的两位数收入增长。我们预计，随着时间的推移，利润率将适度增长，我们将产生远远超过净利润的大量自由现金流。当我们为未来的增长进行投资时，我们将向股东返还大量的过剩资本。这减少了流通股，并随着时间的推移增加了回报。感谢您今天参加我们的节目，我们期待下个季度再次更新。
接线员:今天的电话会议到此结束。谢谢你的参与。您现在可以断开连接。
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